Dear Friends, today I would like to take a quick look at the current state of Turkish diplomacy rather than its economy. Let me share with you the notes that I have gathered from my meetings with esteemed foreign policy experts.
When it was understood that the return of a harsh foreign policy would not be to the benefit of Turkey, the government seems to have turned to a brand-new diplomatic design. Although it might be a little late to take a diplomatic action, there’s no harm in helping to calm the tensions in the region. However, there are a few issues that need to be handled quite carefully.
For instance, the fact that Israel is not as dependent on Turkey in the region as it used to be in regarding the Syrian crisis, even having a conflict of interest and the fact that the Israeli government has reconciled with the Arab Countries has revealed that this strategy of tension must come to an end. It remains as an option for Turkey to benefit from the distribution of Israeli natural gas. However, the interest groups in the United States do not allow the normalization of relations between the two countries.
So, due to the circumstances, Turkey came closer to Israel through Azerbaijan. It does not go unnoticed that a strong cooperation has started between Azerbaijan and Israel, covering many areas from security to agriculture. I guess it will take time for Turkey to get any benefit from this new partnership. For now, we need to be patient and wait until the time is right.
There’s also the migrant crisis: Turkey must initiate contact with the Assad regime in order to send the refugees in Turkey back to their homes in Syria. However, as claimed, there will be no meeting between the two leaders. The process will be managed through indirect talks.
“Tensions Are Rising”
According to experts, recent tensions with Greece deserves more attention and more careful manoeuvres. Turkey’s drillship ‘Abdulhamid Han’ is not in the risky area at the moment, but it will soon cruise into the problematic areas and the “controlled tension” will continue. It does not seem possible for Turkey to make peace with Greece all of a sudden, just like it did with Israel. On the contrary, the situation may become increasingly tense and dangerous.
As to what is going on at the other side of the world: The United States, which has been indirectly supporting the “One China” policy for the last 50 years, has shifted its paradigm, albeit a little, due to what happened to Hong Kong. While continuing to support the “One China” policy, it looks like the United States will make efforts to ensure the continuation of the status quo regarding Taiwan so that China does not become more powerful. I completely agree with the experts who say that the U.S. will not go to war for Taiwan. Not to mention that there are not many countries that officially recognize Taiwan.
Expectations are increasing that Russia will intervene in grain shipments since it is said that Ukraine has started to buy weapons with the money it earns from grain sales. As I mentioned in my previous articles, the world still expects that Russia will expand its war aims. Unfortunately, the process might be likely to start a second cold war.