Dear friends,
Last week, I tried to draw attention to the following possibility:
“I see that those who have been in power for a long time never thought that they would become the opposition, and those who have been in the opposition for a long time never thought about the possibility of not winning the elections. If the elections do not result as expected, we may witness winners and losers exhibit extreme behaviour.”
Indeed, extreme joy and extreme sadness seem to have marked the aftermath of the first round. The second round will be quite rough. Those who are experienced in politics never let themselves to be certain to win any election. However, I must also state that:
Regardless of the difficult situation in which it found itself, the fact that the government got better results than a seemingly stronger opposition should be a lesson to those who analyse their position by listening to a handful of people around them. For example:
After the earthquake, I travelled to at least 15 different provinces in Turkey on various occasions. When I returned to Istanbul, people asked me about the impressions I got there, and my according predictions about the election results. My answer was: “If the elections are concluded in the first round, the victor will not be the Nation Alliance, if it goes to the second round, the conditions will be somewhat come to a balance”. When I stated this, many immediately objected to it, saying that the opposition will win by 55%”. Because they thought that the Nation Alliance would secure a majority in Parliament and majority of votes in the presidential elections. But the votes from the earthquake-stricken areas shocked everyone. It looks like the voters could not fully understand the importance of the discussions among the members of the Altılı Masa (Table of Six) regarding the nomination of a presidential candidate.
The results of the elections show us the choice that people made, which should be respected. I would like to say to the young people supporting the government or the opposition: Regard the politics as a long-term process, and continue to do whatever is right.
The election results show that the government will not change the current economic model, which is not good news for the BIST, interest rates and the value of TRY. I expect that both the government and the opposition will make some harsh statements about one another until the end of the second round. In the meantime, investors should try to stay as calm as possible and not change positions according to the conjuncture. As for the amateurs, they should watch the markets from a distance.
