The recent statements President Trump has delivered to prevent the fault line between Turkey and the US from further extending did not go unnoticed indeed, which seem also to be helpful in terms of easing the markets, especially prior to the upcoming CBRT decision.
Last week, both on television and via other media outlets, I’ve made some requests from the CBRT executives. I pointed out that their user-friendly former website had contained more data compared to the new one, which seems quite fancy yet poor in terms of effective communication.
CBRT’s former website also offered comparative data on the world economy, on their new website, however, these data are only included in President’s Speeches. Not easy to locate… Ensuring that academics and analysts have easy access to the economic key figures of Turkey and the World as well as comparative data analysis is of utmost importance. Maybe that’s the key aspect of effective communication. I absolutely expect CBRT website to provide global-comparative data on inflation GDP growth, policy interest rates and PMI etc. even for “developed” and “developing” countries separately. Otherwise, the number of those who do not refrain from making unfair criticism will rise.
“Apparent mistakes in real interest rate calculation…”
Here’s the key detail: Apparently, CBRT can’t get to tell the world that not only political, but a technical infrastructure for a possible rate cut is ready. As I’ve said countless times before, CBRT must show the huge gap between the policy interest rate and the expectational inflation using a new graphical representation of data, because people who claim that you get 8 bps real interest rate when you subtract inflation from policy interest rate are mistaken. As a matter of fact, Turkey currently offers a real interest rate by 12 bps over the next one year.
Given that the Monetary Policy Meeting approaches, I feel it’s my responsibility to offer some suggestions to strengthen the hand of Turkish Central Bank since Central Banks establish real and effective communication via their official website or press statements or releases, not through press conferences.
By the way, here’s my answer to those who wonder what will happen if rates go down: Exchange rates might show an upward trend after the rate cut, but not for too long, as long as nothing goes wrong about the terrorism, domestic policy and diplomacy issues.