On the first anniversary of Turkey’s Afrin operation, I’d like to share with you the information I got, consulting with foreign policy and economics. Turkey currently faces three major problems in terms diplomacy: Syria, Eastern Mediterranean and Brexit.
The result of Brexit vote we watched live last week tells us that Brexit may also mean leaving the customs union. Although PM May survives the non-confidence vote, Labour Party want a snap election. It looks like a snap election is on the British horizon. Meanwhile, decision-making mechanisms in EU seem to be befuddled as UK still remains an EU member country. For a broader perspective on this issue, I recommend you to read Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan’s columns in Türkiye newspaper. They would help you develop a straighter point of view in a period where all sorts of ideas are fiercely clashing with each other.
By the way, the “gilet jaunes” protests in France spread to the Netherlands. Both Brexit process and recent negative developments in EU countries seem like they won’t be any help in improving Turkey’s foreign trade performance. According to experts, the situation may also yield negative outcomes for Turkish tourism.
A harsh process awaits Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey was not among the attendees of a summit held last week, to which even Palestine was invited. It is reported that Turkey may retaliate by carrying out a scheduled manoeuvre in March in the Eastern Mediterranean. Some parts of Turkish naval forces are already deployed to the region. The situation itself again seems like a threat to Turkish Tourism and Trade.
“Listen to experts who conduct the right analyses…”
Yesterday, I video called the journalist Metehan Demir, which currently is in Afrin. He told me that the area now seems to be under control.
“There’s a specific limit set by the US, which is 20 miles (32 km). However, we’re talking about an area of 465 km long. The volume of total military presence here is just not enough to keep the area under full control. Besides, considering that fact that the U.S. military will withdraw 2200 ground troops from Syria, we shouldn’t make a big deal out of it. Other than that, France currently has 200 soldiers deployed in the area. Tough not with ground military support, the US forces can intervene in Syria with an attack speed of 7 minutes with the help of US bases and aircraft carriers.”
Here’s what I understood from the things he said: There’s a lack of information about the exact number of ground forces deployed in the area. Knowing that he’s a military expert with vast experience, I always trust him when it comes to military issues.
In the meantime, it looks like the US gets closer with Russia and Turkey simultaneously. Even though not an easy diplomacy to deliver, it seems like it’s working quite well for now. But this got to have a breaking point somewhere on the road. So, US should better be careful as US as well Russian support to PKK and YPG does not go unnoticed.
After the explosion in Syria’s Manbij, there are escalating concerns that similar attack can take place in Turkey as well. Also, it is possible that French influence in the area can grow over the upcoming period.
In conclusion, three major issues I mentioned above can potentially cause economic as well as diplomatic troubles before local elections. I especially suggest business owners and professional executive to pay attention to these scenarios and listen to experts who can really make the most accurate and spot on analysis analyses.