Challenges That Await Us In 2024

As the first trading day of 2024 begins, let us take a quick look at the Top ten global risks 2024: 

• Rising armed conflicts 
• Diplomatic tensions 
• Fight against inflation and interest rates 
• Local and general elections 
• Slowdown in world trade 
• Food and energy crisis 
• Natural disasters 
• A new pandemic

 
The increasing number of military conflicts, the current and possible future tensions with the US and the EU, Sweden's NATO membership and the uncertainty over F-16 purchase, especially before the 75th anniversary of NATO in April 2024, will definitely be on the agenda of the government. Economic slowdown due to rising inflation and interest rates before the local elections will also be among the problems that the government will have to deal with. I think that even if Sweden's membership is approved at the Turkish Parliament, the F-16 buy might still encounter some obstacles.  

The upcoming local elections are likely to be held in a rather harsh atmosphere. Competition in big cities will lead to a coarsening of political language. The position that the President will take this week following the "super cup fiasco" in Saudi Arabia is very important. The government would surely not want to antagonise the fans of the two clubs. But if it chooses to do so, the other fan communities might also want to join Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe fans. However, it is clear that the government will be in a difficult situation and someone will be paid for this. Including Turkish local elections, around 70 local and general elections will be held all around the world. Therefore, we will see anger and harsh rhetoric everywhere. 

The United States, China and Germany are likely to experience economic growth problems in 2024. The economic challenges that these powerful actors of world trade will face will have an inevitable impact on international economic relations.  Problems in the US and Germany, two of Turkey’s top trade partners, will negatively affect Turkey’s trade deficit and current account deficit, and ultimately, exchange rates will go further up. As food nationalism and self-sufficiency trends rise, energy security might become a problem even in slowing economies. None of these, of course, will have a positive impact on inflation. 

Unfortunately, Turkey still does not have adequate earthquake awareness and preparedness. We could therefore say that a major earthquake in Istanbul, which might happen any time, is the biggest risk of 2024 for our country. If the quake hits at the beginning of the year, we will spend the next five years recovering. Not to mention that neither the Ministry of Finance, the Treasury, nor the Central Bank are ready for a disaster of this level. The only thing we can do right now is to pray that it does not happen ‘this year’. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed shape and size many times. It doesn't kill anymore, but it puts people out of work. There are new types of influenza viruses that resist drugs by constantly evolving. These new variants do not cause only cough and cold, but also nausea and other symptoms such as severe headaches and muscle aches. Tired and frustrated, doctors prescribe some medication or antibiotics and send patients home. Meanwhile, the number of sudden deaths has been increasing. According to some scientists, these are caused by COVID-19 vaccines, which will increase the number of people who do not want to be vaccinated when a new pandemic strikes. Most people may prefer staying at home or not coming to work in order to avoid vaccination. But, doing nothing about their attitude against such a possible crisis is not helpful. It is imperative that we start working on some preventive scenarios so as not to lose quality human capital.