Tampering Inflation Data!

 
Honestly, I was rather disappointed by the inflation rates released last week rather. People responsible for managing the economy in this country had given hope to everyone when they first took office because they had spoken rationally hence gained the support of the business world and the market actors. But today, they are distorting the CPI figures.
 
Distorting the reality in order to say "I was right" leads to a dangerous path. There are so many things to say about this data, for instance, public transport prices came out lower than expected even though they have been persistently high the previous month. These steps taken by the economy officials to protect their own reputation have reminded me of previous managements, except for the period of Naci Ağbal and Lütfi Elvan, who, by the way, did also cause serious damage to the economy by covering up the side effects of the methods they have used. Consequently today inflation and high cost of living is Türkiye’s biggest problems, not to mention a currency that constantly depreciates.
 
I have remained sceptical since the first day the current Central Bank took office. I have applauded their good decisions and criticised their bad ones. I said that the monetary and exchange rate policies were not suitable for the disinflation goal they were pursuing and these policies needed to be supported by a  strong fiscal policy it. I constantly cautioned that there was a danger that we could experience a great burden in order to attain a good result that is not certain to occur.
 
Apparently, since the economy officials have realised that they will not have any other advantage other than an inflation rate that is bound to decrease under the base effect, they are trying to maintain the illusion that their method is working by fabricating new CPI figures that are significantly below the ones announced by the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. Just as the 38% inflation rate they have seen when they took office a year ago was not real, the recently announced CPI rate is not either. Needless to say, the only way to clean this mess will be a cut in the policy interest rate. Besides, they were already paving the way since yesterday to make this happen.  
 
Another disappointing fact is that, as scholars, we all use these official statistics as part of our research efforts. We do not use the figures stated in studies prepared by individuals in the form of reports or surveys. In Turkey, official statistics are published by the following: Turkish Statistical Institute, Central Bank, Treasury and Finance Departments of the Government. In the past, we had the State Planning Organization (DPT), but now there is neither an organization nor a ministry left. If doubt about the accuracy of the data issued by these three government agencies increases, then economists begin to doubt the outputs of their own research. If there is no scientific data, there is no help. And we are becoming helpless every day.
 
I turned 55 on Tuesday last week. Since my father was also an economist, I am quite familiar with the causes and consequences of the developments in Turkey and the world for almost half a century. And I see very clearly that this story does not have a happy ending. Our responsibility now should be to guide and protect those who trust us and work with us.
 

Prof. Alkin