More troubles or less troubles with Trump?

With Trump's election, some commentators interpreted the rise of the US Dollar as a sign that "America is on the right track." It wouldn't be wrong to say that the rise in US stock markets also supported this idea. However, I think we need to look at the issue from a different perspective.

The appreciation of the US Dollar is not occurring due to positive expectations about the US economy. On the contrary, when an environment of uncertainty arises, investors sell their assets and switch to dollars, causing the dollar to rise. Furthermore, because Trump's stance against the EU is well known, this election result is considered "bad news" for everyone in Europe, especially Germany. Consequently, as there has been a sell-off of the Euro, the Dollar appears to have risen in the exchange rate.

Trump's clearly stated positions are as follows:

- He will not allow immigrants and will deport them.
- He will reduce the US military presence abroad.
- He will mediate between Russia and Ukraine and will cut aid to Ukraine for this purpose.
- Ukraine and Georgia will not become NATO members.
- He will declare a ceasefire and peace in favor of Israel regarding the Gaza issue.
- He will impose high tariffs on China and Mexico.
- He will restore the "Abraham Accords."

Interestingly, despite Trump's statements and rhetoric, it appears that Americans of all faiths voted for the Republicans. They repeatedly expressed their weariness with the Democrats' loose approaches to family life and their desire for a government that respects their beliefs. In addition, there are millions of Americans complaining about the breakdown of law and order and the ineffectiveness of security forces.

Of course, the aspect of Trump's election that will benefit Turkey is undoubtedly the Russia-Ukraine Peace. This is important for Turkey as Russia is a significant market, and it had become unfeasible to conduct business due to the fear of sanctions. However, let's not forget that Trump caused significant harm to Turkey during his first presidential term. It wouldn't be incorrect to say that a large part of the ongoing troubles started with him.

Therefore, I believe we should wait for the first actions of the new president, who will take office on January 20, before making comments like "Trump has come and troubles are over." In the meantime, we should note that there were two assassination attempts on him, one of which he narrowly escaped. We cannot predict what will happen in the two-month period leading up to his inauguration. In my opinion, the adventure has just begun.

Prof. Alkin