Storm Front Coming..

International organizations' assessments of Turkey for the upcoming year are attracting considerable attention lately. In the latest OECD report, some forecasts have been made regarding Turkey's macroeconomic parameters.

The report predicts that the inflation in Turkey for the year 2024 will average 58.3%. It also mentions that in 2025, the annual average inflation is expected to be 30.7%, and in 2026, this rate will decrease to 17.2%. In summary, even in the OECD reports, written by field agents collecting tangible data, there is no expectation of single-digit inflation.

In fact, we also see that the Central Bank has abandoned its single-digit inflation expectation for 2026. To recall, the year-end inflation forecast for 2024 was revised for the fourth time to be announced as 44%, while the 2025 forecast was revised to 21%. The Central Bank expects 12% inflation in 2026. Of course, it is not very possible to know what will happen in 48 months, but everyone sees that the target of single-digit inflation is nearly impossible with the prescription being applied.

In the G20 countries ranking, Turkey ranks second after Argentina, which has an inflation rate of 120%, while it is first in the OECD countries ranking. As I mentioned earlier, many countries appear to have been successful in disinflation policies within a year. In Turkey, however, targets are constantly revised but not achieved.

While we talk about inflation, currency, and interest rates, in France, the government failed to gain a vote of confidence and fell. Germany is already heading for early elections in February. The two major economies of the EU have begun to experience a political crisis in the midst of conflicts in Russia-Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. When Trump takes office, it is likely that new governments in both countries will not have started their terms yet.

We observe that common sense is increasingly diminishing worldwide, and far-right elements are beginning to dominate. This development or wave will not bring goodness to humanity. As Rousseau said, "the powerful are not always right; where common sense ends, no one can be right."

I believe that there needs to be an urgent emergence of a way out or a new narrative that will free Turkey from the issues it faces. I hope the expected cabinet and significant changes will contribute to this.

Prof. Alkin