Why Was Trump Elected? It’s the Economy!

Official U.S. figures show the fastest price rise in sectors from 2020 to 2024 (seasonally adjusted) as follows:

Transportation: 27.1%
Food and Beverage: 25.2%
Housing: 23.7%
Other Goods and Services: 22.0%
Health Expenditures: 10.0%
Apparel: 6.9%

In countries with high inflation like Turkey, increases in these categories can happen not only over five years but also within a month. Therefore, we need to look at the issue from a different perspective. Have American citizens, on average, been able to increase their incomes by more than 20% over the last five years?

Research by Statista shows that between 2020 and 2023, American wage earners were continually pressed by inflation. However, starting from February 2023, wages began to rise above inflation. We observe that wage increases intersected with inflation at around 6%, after which inflation rapidly decreased while wage growth continued to stay elevated. It is also worth noting that there is a regional minimum wage implementation in the U.S.

On the other hand, according to a report released by Statista last week, the household income in the U.S. was $79,560 in 2020 and has only increased to $80,610 in 2023. Although the 2024 figures have not yet been released, it indicates that household income has fallen behind the significant price increases mentioned earlier. I suspect that the 2024 household income figure will not show a significant leap to close the gap. Therefore, despite the recovery of incomes against inflation since 2023, we can still say that  American citizens remain in a losing position against rising living costs.

Further dissecting the data by ethnic distribution reveals some interesting results regarding income:

Asian Americans: $112,800
Whites: $89,050
Hispanics: $65,540
Native Americans and Alaskan Natives: $57,270
Black Americans: $56,490

It appears that Asian Americans have best understood the issue of the "American Dream." While Whites also remain above the average income, other groups fall significantly below it. It should be noted that, according to the 2023 census, there are approximately 22 million Asian Americans and over 252 million Whites. Black Americans number around 46 million, while Native Americans barely reach 1 million.

If we rank based on income:

All income brackets above $75,000 account for 53% of total households.
Those below $75,000 represent 47% of the total.

In summary, more than half of households in the U.S. have income at or above the average. From this perspective, it can be concluded that a significant majority of White Americans are below the average income level, and this situation has not improved in the last five years. The Biden administration's decline can be attributed to this, with voters giving Trump another chance, believing he faced challenges during his first term due to the "Pandemic Effect." One can see the significance of the saying "It's the economy, you fool" which enabled Clinton to win the election against Bush Sr.

Of course, this situation is not universally applicable to every country.

Prof. Alkin