The way the Central Bank raised interest rates was wrong. They increased rates gradually due to fears from both politics and the business world that supports them. As a result, both interest rates and inflation rose. They did everything they could to validate the thesis that "interest creates inflation." The inflation they inherited was around 38%, and they raised it to 75%.

Official U.S. figures show the fastest price rise in sectors from 2020 to 2024 (seasonally adjusted) as follows: Transportation: 27.1% Food and Beverage: 25.2% Housing: 23.7% Other Goods and Services: 22.0% Health Expenditures: 10.0% Apparel: 6.9%

International organizations' assessments of Turkey for the upcoming year are attracting considerable attention lately. In the latest OECD report, some forecasts have been made regarding Turkey's macroeconomic parameters. The report predicts that the inflation in Turkey for the year 2024 will average 58.3%. It also mentions that in 2025, the annual average inflation is expected to be 30.7%, and in 2026, this rate will decrease to 17.2%. In summary, even in the OECD reports, written by field agents collecting tangible data, there is no expectation of single-digit inflation.

In the United States, the inflation rates for October appear to have aligned with expectations. Therefore, we can say that the anticipation of another interest rate cut from the Fed in December has also increased.

With Trump's election, some commentators interpreted the rise of the US Dollar as a sign that "America is on the right track." It wouldn't be wrong to say that the rise in US stock markets also supported this idea. However, I think we need to look at the issue from a different perspective.

In the last two days of October, I experienced a rather exciting and surprising event in Istanbul. The event organized by Huawei under the theme of transitioning from 5G to 5.5G satisfied visitors in every respect, and I must say that Istanbul made a good host. The MBBF and UBBF events held at the Halic Congress Center were filled with engaging content. The opening speech of the event was delivered by Ken Hu, Deputy Chairman of Huawei Technologies. The most striking part of his speech that stuck with me was this:

The inflation rate for October was announced this morning. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported at 2.88%, which is higher than expected. However, the median expectation of 19 institutions participating in a news channel's inflation survey regarding October was a monthly rate of 2.5%. Accordingly, the annual inflation for October was expected to be around 48%.

Dear Friends, we often comment on developments related to the Far East, especially China, based on hearsay and clichés that we have heard before. Western countries, especially those closer to the East, are aware that a new world order is being established. In this new order, regional trade collaborations like RCEP will gain importance as win-win spillover effects attract economic entities.

Following the inflation data released last week, foreign financial institutions have begun to revise their forecasts regarding Turkey. Nearly all institutions agreed that "the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) will wait a bit longer for easing." Perhaps the most significant opinion was this: "The disinflation process will continue, but we are doubtful about its success in the medium term."

Last week, the Economic Management made a statement saying, "In July, the foreign investor inflow was quite high." However, information flowing from news agencies throughout the day revealed why this statement was made. The data for July may have been good, but now we are in mid-September, and developments are not very positive.

When you make a decision and people say "best of luck," it indicates their acceptance of that decision. However, if they say "may it be for the best," they are expressing a meaningful reaction to a decision that they do not find to be particularly correct. The latest Medium Term Program (MTP) was met with this response by 99% of Turkey.