Sometimes, I get worried as I read or watch the discussions on interest rates and foreign exchange rates on social media. Most people think that the value of Turkish lira varies depending on some technical parameters. But, there is something they do not consider.

I have attended panels in Mardin, Antalya and Cyprus throughout the week to answer the questions of different sectors before the March elections.

As the CBRT makes efforts to keep exchange rates below inflation continue, it has also lost another $10 billion from the FX reserves. There are concerns as to whether this policy will remain unchanged even after the elections.

Governments around the world say that the fight against inflation is about to come to an end and rate cuts will begin again. But what people are actually afraid of is economic slowdown or recession, and the fact that current rate hikes will not mean anything due to price increases caused by logistics costs.

In light of the recent Central Bank incident, which I hope that the has been a lesson to everyone, let me offer some pieces of advice to investors and private sector: - If you agree to be a guarantor for someone, do it because of the good and successful things they have done so far, not for the things they say they will do. - Avoid saying things you might regret later. .

In 2006, when I was serving as the secretary general of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM), my colleagues and I had conducted an empirical study to put an end to the "exchange rates and export performance" debates.

According to the latest data, income distribution in Türkiye has been noticeably deteriorating since last year. While the top 20% of all Turkish citizens had 45.9% of the country's total income in 2014, this rate has increased to 49.8% in 2023. In other words, the top 20 percent, that is the rich, hold half of the total wealth.

The CBRT has finally announced its decision and hiked rates by 250-bps as expected. In their press release, central bank officials said that there will not be rate cuts anytime soon, at least not until before inflation starts to decline.

Yesterday’s statement by the CBRT tells us that interest rates will stay at this level for a while. However, rising policy rate does not prevent deposit rates from going down. And people are trying to save money by buying goods or services whose prices are expected to increase in the near future. The current level of deposit interest rates does not stop consumption. This situation will also lead to further deterioration of pricing behaviour and naturally, CPI will remain high.

As predicted, the social media buzz about the CBRT has come to an end as of yesterday. Now the markets are focused on the rate decision to be released on Thursday.

Some reports issued by international financial institutions make me question whether they analyse the Turkish economy correctly or not. The analysts working for these institutions must be in contact with their colleagues in Türkiye because their statements such as, "Raising interest rates to 45% will be enough. You may cut them in summer" seems like an exact replica of what our economic institutions say.

It is not possible for anyone to know how much of the news posted on social media is true and how much them is fake, fabricated lies to call into question someone's reputation.However, despite the unconditional support of banks and media, one cannot help but realise that Turkey’s new economic team is not doing so well.

It looks like shipping firms avoiding Red Sea as attacks will lead to an increase in freight charges.Despite Houthi attacks since 19 November, more than 2000 tankers continued to sail through the Red Sea in November and December, with only 55 of them changing their route. However, increased risk in the Red Sea caused a surge in shipping insurance rates.