Economics and finance are two closely related topics, yet they are not the same. What economists do is to assess the current economic situation in the light of historical facts and accordingly generate future scenarios and solutions to potential problems. They tell you what is possible and what is ideal. They factor political and social developments into the equation, and place their focus on development rather than economic growth alone.

Recently, I met trade, economics and foreign policy experts at the USLA campus, Topkapı University’s Gastronomy Centre, to taste the delicacies of world cuisine. The consensus was that global trade is facing a serious risk, which threatens to cause a major increase in freight shipping rates, and ultimately in inflation.

Market Democracy reinforced by free will is, by nature, the ideal regime. In such a regime, it is natural for people to price or bargain goods or services according to their scarcity or abundance in order to meet their needs. This process or “realm” called the free market does not welcome any sort of government intervention unless it is absolutely necessary.

A reader of mine recently said to me, “Professor, will anything good ever happen? You always talk about risks and troubles!” He was right. But I also thought that I was right too. When I look at the state of things, I honestly can’t see anything positive happening. Although there have not been any good developments lately, we can talk about favourable prospects and potential opportunities.

Humans are capable of getting used to good and bad, though not instantly, but over a reasonable period of time. As circumstances gradually worsen, this capability of ours to adapt becomes stronger, our ‘survival mode’ comes into operation and we don't find the time to complain while we try to survive.

In a presentation I delivered in December last year I listed the top risks for 2023: inflation, recession and their impacts on the world trade supply challenges and supply chain restructuring, conflicts and wars, escalating tensions between the Islamic world and the West, the ever-growing global population, environmental degradation and natural disasters and the constantly increasing debt burden and efforts to replace strong currencies.

This article is meant not only for us but also for our foreign friends who often have difficulty understanding us. I have tried to explain how Turkey could always survive through disasters and misfortunes, and the state of being stuck between the East and the West.

An interesting survey has been carried out by the OECD aimed at discovering the percentage of the "subjective middle class", which is about people's perceptions and judgment about their social class. The reason why the OECD decided to investigate this phenomenon was to reveal both the income distribution and whether individuals actually live according to their income. The survey attempts to find out how many of people who say that they belong to middle-class households are actually not middle-income earners.

"No one knows what will happen in the next minute". This statement often comes as a shock to people who strongly believe in determinism, because they were deeply influenced by mathematics taught in high school. Laplace (1749-1827), known as the father of high school mathematics, pushed scientific determinism over the top with the following proposition:

According to Milei, who had just come to power in Argentina, it is his government’s moral obligation to close the Argentinian Central Bank. Setting aside the absurdity of this statement, we must look at the history to see the reason lying behind his calling.

The events of today remind us of the events of the past: - Before World War II - 1970s Before the WWII, European economy had suffered from severe banking crises and recessions originating from the United States. Just like it happened in 2008. Borrowing rates had reached their highest level. Fascism was rising to power while liberalism was declining. Southeast Asia was progressing and growing through reforms. Amidst these changes, the world trade could not recover until the 1970s.

It is unquestionable that the world will rest until the fire in the Middle East is put out. I do think no winner will emerge out of this conflict. However, in the meantime, the US and the EU remain vulnerable to China and India’s attacks while they are dealing with the Greater Israel project.

You might have watched The Day the Earth Stood Still, a remake of the 1951 science fiction film starring Keanu Reeves. There is an interesting dialogue in this film between Helen Benson and Klaatu. - I need to know what’s happening. - This planet is dying. The human race is killing it. - So you’ve come here to help us. - No, I didn’t. - You said you came to save us. - I said I came to save the Earth. - You came to save the Earth... from us. We are blind to see the fast-approaching danger because we are too busy with killing each other and our planet. Those who are in high positions, enough to see everything, on the other hand, choose to ignore it.

The history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, its effect on international trade, and the possible damage it may cause to the global economy are discussed in detail by my colleagues. So, I do not feel the need to comment further on the issue since it is being explored thoroughly by the experts. Today, I would like to offer some pieces of advice to companies about what to do in case of a sharp slowdown in global trade and decrease in supply.

This week's article is based on the notes that I gathered from my recent talks with foreign and domestic policy experts, strategists, historians and economists who understand the Middle East quite well.