“The comedic spectacle called ‘If Central Banks does not hike rates, Dollar would hit 5.5 TL’ is officially over!” This is what I shared on my social media account yesterday afternoon. I must say that I received some pretty severe reaction, especially from those who are engaged into buy/sell trades.
That’s because they took positions based on the high possibility that interest rates will go up. But, they were wrong. Some of them even laughed at me, “I will see your face when USD/TRY reaches 5.00”, they said. I did not want to give them hard time really as they were in great pain.
The second angry group was the rentiers who are making money off of interest. They tried to take out their frustration on me since they were operating under the banner of ‘20% deposit interest rate or nothing’. I said, “That day will come, so be patient”. Apparently, that little joke of mine was not enough to help them calm down.
“Be aware of Cause-Effect Relationships…”
Some other group has accused me of being pro-government. In fact, if you read my works, you will see that I do not explicitly defend any political view. And the more interesting thing is that when people agree with you on something, they provide the best possible support they can, but in case of any slight disagreement, they immediately side against you, which all seems very funny to me indeed.
However, it was also claimed that USD/TRY’s fall was not an economic success as it was indeed caused by the latest court ruling regarding the ongoing trial of U.S. Christian pastor in Turkey. As a matter of fact, their objections only prove me right and all the things I’ve been trying to tell for years. TRY can only achieve stability through the establishment of proper ties with our political, trade and strategic partners, not by hiking rates over and over again. Rate hike is a response to an emergency. Not a permanent solution… Accordingly, I found it very interesting that some people have indeed considered this fall in exchange rates after the court ruling for the U.S. pastor trial as “pure chance”.
In short, I think everyone, including top experts as well as everyday citizens, should have at least a fundamental knowledge of 21st Century cause-effect relationships. Only a handful of people with this sense of awareness do not seem enough to help Turkey thrive in the future.