According OECD, World Bank and IMF statistics, in 2030, Turkey will still be a member of the G20. Ranked right below Spain, Turkey will be followed by Saudi Arabia. It seems, however, quite clear that Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Brazil, India and China will rank way above Turkey in the future.
And interestingly, Nigeria is projected to be among the top 20 world economies in 2030, climbing to 19th place just above the Netherlands. Nigeria will even capture the 9th place in 2050 according to the same calculations.
According to PwC report, World’s largest economies in 2050 will rank as follows:
|COUNTRY||GDP (trillion dollars)|
As seen in the table above, Indonesia, in terms of economic growth and value-added activities, Mexico and Nigeria will most likely develop faster than Turkey over the upcoming period. Turkey’s GDP in 2050 is projected at around $5.2 trillion. According to this, there is a high probability that Turkey will continue to be a member of the G20. Again, I would like to point out that Turkey’s current economic model will not allow Turkish economy to rank among the World’s top 10 economies in 2050. I am not even sure if Turkey will still be a member of the G20 in the future. So, it is incontestably obvious that Turkey must switch to a new economic growth model.
In a report on the ‘new growth model’ I prepared years ago with Cemil Ertem, who is serving as senior advisor to the President today, as well as in many reports prepared in collaboration with Yalın Alpay, we stated that the backbone of the Turkish economy must be built upon high technology, value-added goods/services, brand creation/development and innovation. The late professor mentored me and Cemil Ertem during the preparation of the report, which is currently in possession of Turkish Exporters’ Assembly.
In short, if one day, we can see that higher education is the foundation for a sustainable economic development, and if we talk less but do more, I have no doubt that Turkey will get the recognition it fully deserves.