We had three scenarios at hand when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine first began. The first one involved a ceasefire and then a permanent peace and the withdrawal of the Russian army from Ukraine.
The second scenario was about the continuation of Russian invasion and the formation of a new status quo. Until now, we thought that this scenario would continue for a long time. However, Russians missile attack on the port of Odessa and the possibility of further invasion makes me think that the third scenario will soon be in motion.
The third scenario would see Russians invade Ukraine as a whole. If the second scenario is executed, the world trade will lose half a trillion dollars and global GDP will decrease by 1.5 points. Almost a nightmare scenario…. When we think about how this situation will affect Turkey, I think we should know that there is the risk of being involved in a military conflict.
“Security Policies Reduce Options.”
In terms of a new military operation in Syria, Turkey might take action in coordination with Russia and Iran in the upcoming period.
Obviously, this will disturb both Europe and the United States. In fact, we all know which side should prevail when we weigh this possible operation and try to decide whether it will change help change the voters’ minds or it will be a good opportunity for Turkish exports and industry under the circumstances”, but politics does not work like this. Therefore, I could say that security policies will continue to be in place for an undefined period.
It goes without saying that the talks among Turkey, Russia and Iran are disturbing the western world, but unfortunately, as a country, we often have to seek alternatives that the western world does not like in order to bring terrorism under control. It is not surprising that Turkey contacted two powerful countries in the region to fight terrorism right after it opposed to Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession. However, I think that negotiating with NATO members on the one hand and holding talks with the countries that are disliked by the NATO Allies on the other is something that needs to be analysed correctly in terms of the 21st century paradigms.
As I often mentioned in my previous reports, Turkey does not trust NATO members. But it does not really trust the countries that are highly disliked by NATO either. What Turkey is trying to do is to maintain a policy of balance between the two groups.
However, none of these efforts will unfortunately be enough to achieve the breakthrough required for Turkish industry and exports. For this, elections need to take place and political conflicts need to be resolved.
Tomorrow I will share my analysis that takes a different perspective on China’s banking crisis
