(Is) this is the best we can do…

My articles on my website or the comments I deliver on television serves me as an instrument to warn people when I don’t feel genuinely satisfied with the brief comments I make or the mobile apps I use. People mostly reproach me for being too critical while they declare that they are doing the best they could. But, my purpose here is to help them become the best version of themselves.

Those who criticise me for being overly critical can be classified into three categories:

  • Those who claim that everything goes terrible
  • Those who claim that everything goes perfect
  • And those who are just since they see things as what they really are.

Well, I like to think myself as a part of the last category above. I’m being criticized for seeing things as what they are. If even people like me have been saying, “That’s not the way to run things” lately, those who criticise us should look in the mirror instead of blaming us for flirting with the opponent. Let me tell you one thing: Things get done in the worst possible way just to save the day or to please everybody. As I have great respect for the workforce, I try to give soft, even sometimes funny criticism. If people still get easily offended, I think there’s nothing I can do for them. I really suggest them to take a hard look in the mirror.

“Highly anticipated GDP growth data…”

Maybe the most important data of the week is the 1stQuarter Growth Data scheduled to be released on Friday. Honestly, I haven’t been very welcoming about the idea to call what we’ve been going through so far as “technical recession” as I have neither heard nor seen anyone to call recession “technical” or “practical”.

However, I’ve always said and will always say that I’m against this manoeuvre where some people are trying to make the markets look worse than they really are. The circumstances Turkey is in are nothing like the circumstances of Argentina, Venezuela or Zimbabwe. Unlike these countries, Turkey’s financial markets are running like clockwork. There’s nothing wrong with the critical infrastructure, there is no increasing social unrest, only some serious diplomatic issues. Well, not to mention people’s habit of “acting like nothing’s wrong”.

“Europe is in turmoil again…”

Meanwhile, millions of voters from 21 European Union countries voted in the European Parliament elections. While there was a fairly marginal increase by the far-right and the far-left, Europe’s leading political parties turned out to be in decline.

Local and general elections are to take place in many other European countries soon. Sadly, ultra-nationalism is on the rise in countries across Europe today. In the meantime, British PM May’s sudden resignation increases the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit, which is obviously not good news for Turkey. No one has any idea which treaty will govern how Turkey’s exports to the UK will operate after the Brexit.

Honestly, this weekend I was sick and tired of questions about the CDS premiums and USD/TRY exchange rate. Here are the answers I provided to never-ending questions:

  • Buy USD in a floating rate if you have TRY obviously. If you don’t, don’t buy dollars. Exchange rates do not go up since there’s no liquidity in the market.
  • CDS Premiums are rising because of Turkey’s diplomatic risk, not because of its default risk.
  • If Turkey can go back to the country it used to be from 2002 to 2013, everything might just get better.

This is the method I use to calm people down. I think we should all l admit that the World’s and Turkey’s current conjuncture isn’t suitable at all to offer a new narrative. So, it would not be very realistic to expect market fluctuations to ease rapidly.

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