According to analyses by the IMF, World Bank and other leading institutions in finance, World Economy is expected to grow by 3.3%-3.7% in 2018. And the emerging markets will again get the lion’s share. Interestingly, countries like Germany that showed a positive growth trend in 2017 are expected to get into an economic slowdown in 2018. As for the United States, the anticipated growth is above 2%, which is won’t be surprising at all to see. Likewise, US inflation is expected to remain above 2%.
While France and Germany will carry on down the same path, it is expected that the UK will manage somehow, yet Italy might experience difficulties over the next year. Spain’s economy also expected to slow down.
World Trade which has been able to gather some strength in 2017 will start to slow down significantly, based on revised expectations. A sharp slowdown in Developed Countries’ import is expected while it is envisaged that even though imports in emerging markets will maintain an increasing trend, they won’t be as successful as they were in 2017; which, I think, could be explained by an alarming increase in protectionism as well as a global economic slowdown.
While China’s economy is predicted to grow below 6%, the winner will once again be India. In Turkey’s most favourite export markets, circumstances will turn sour. In 2018, the Sub-Saharan African countries, however, are expected to show a spectacular growth performance. Obviously, such markets are a child’s toy for the investors. Turkey should not expect a successful export performance in those countries struggling with serious instabilities, because it doesn’t seem very likely in the medium-term. But it has to start somewhere, sometime.
In Syria and Iraq, our nearest neighbour countries, economic growth is anticipated to grow by 3-3.5 %; however, inflation rates won’t be quit the same. As Iraq inflation is expected around 2 % or 3 %, inflation rate in Syria will be above 30 %.
Well, those are the 2018 expectation, in brief. We got used, long ago, to the same “Let’s get ready to face another tough year” song. As a matter of fact, both Turkey and the world have been singing the same old song over the last 4-5 years, while on the other hand, those who design and develop new technologies are rapidly moving ahead of other countries.