Market expectations after G-20

Tensions were quite high prior to the G-20 summit, yet they started to ease during the course of the summit, which outcomes, I must say, will calm the markets down even for a little while. Let me tell you why:

First of all, we should be glad that Turkey-US talks went pretty smoothly. I think this outcome will bring a direct positive impact on markets as of this morning. However, as Turkey did not back down form the S-400 deal and designed its diplomacy based on Trump’s power to “delay” sanctions according to the CAATSA, problems will inevitable arise.

I think Tump will have to make a decision sooner or later, because the US Senate keeps making laws against Turkey while Pentagon and the Department of State are exerting pressure on Trump.

The posts that the experts are sharing on social media gave me the impression that they are confused as well. Those who said, “The Summit will face some heavy discussions” one week before the G-20 Summit, are now stating that “Americans couldn’t harm us anyway”. Apparently, when one tries to interpret today’s diplomatic circumstances using the 1990s’ paradigms, it’s getting difficult to make proper manoeuvres. They sadly can deliver some contradictory comments on the same subject.

Well, no offense but people who always lose in such situations are always the hardliners or those who never show their true colours. Therefore, they are interested to know whether those whom they agree with are representing who or what as long as someone appreciates and supports them, which, sometimes, results in the fact that they write the things their supporters want. After a while, some sort of “subservience” emerges, compelling them to write nice things about their supporters even though they didn’t ask them to.

“Difference between being popular and keeping it real…”

Sadly, a majority of people, who are trying to increase their popularity by posting opinions on social media, are not writing nice things today about those whom they wanted to establish themselves in their good graces once, since they can’t get the support or protection they want.

Let me make a quick a summary of the situation for you as well as them: Today, their leaders have a cheek to deny the papers they signed in the past, let alone keeping promises they made in the past. Therefore, what we need to do is to make a detailed analysis of the events without paying too much attention to temporary problems or rosy scenarios.

Obviously, we might expect slight decline in exchange rates due to relatively positive talks between US-China and US-Turkey at the G-20 Summit. These very facts, however, do not change the reality: the situation in Public Finance is alarming, prices keep rising, and a set of new taxes might be on the horizon. Even though a slight drop in exchange rate occurred, I don’t think that it would last long. As it’s the tourist season, I believe the incoming foreign money will serve not to make exchange rates fall, but to prevent them from rising. It isn’t quite helpful, but it’s better than nothing.

However, we should remember the possibility that domestic politics might cause market fluctuations at any given time.