It looks like the expectation for an improvement in US-Turkey relations has helped markets remain rather calmer.
More and more people are hoping that USD/TRY will fall below 5.70 soon. I still suggest you to be cautious for a little while more. It’s good to hear that borrowers will be granted 6 more months to repay their CGF loans. Maybe this could be a remedy to the problems of real sector. But it is also bad news in terms of preventing bank from having access to fresh money. Accordingly, it will no longer be possible to take over public rights and facilities by receiving fund from public banks since cautious approaches would start replacing growth-oriented behaviours when resources are scarce. It looks like those asking for getting invested with new right will first be asked to find new funds. By the way, we’ve been lately receiving rather bad news about certain private sector-owned industrial enterprises that provide public services, which is one of the clear indicators that deterioration is slowly spreading to all over the economy.
“Need to have specific reflexes…”
In fact, a significant part of the things we are experiencing right now as a country are hardly predictable. The ‘pastor’ incident suddenly emerged and suddenly ended. The ‘Khashoggi’ incident suddenly emerged but it is still going on. And it is not possible to foresee how it will end. Just like that, Turkish companies suddenly started to go bankrupt one by one. Sometimes, you just can’t be fully prepared for the upcoming events even though it’s a high probability. The outcome of the trial in the US can likewise not be predicted.
Maybe, we should improve our reflexes to survive under all circumstances. Turkey has experienced some major political conflicts with the US before, including Turkish ship Muavenet and the “hood” incidents, and the Opium Problem. Having overcome such challenges in the smoothest way possible, Turkey will prevail again without a shadow of a doubt. We shall conquer all problems as long as we stand united. I strongly believe that Government’s recent statements on the richness on diversity will greatly help reveal again this precious fact.
Let me remind you of what David Passig wrote about Turkish people in his “2050” book: “If Turkey manages to stand out from the rest of the world as a country that adopts an affectionate stance towards everyone and an equal approach to every orientation, then Turkey will become one of the leader countries of the 21st century”. The values that Passig describes above are in fact our own values we have long forgotten.