One swallow does not make a summer…

I’ve always liked this saying. When I first heard it I was only a small child. My innocent heart had strongly refused to accept it despite my late parents’ efforts to make me understand its meaning; because children never give up hope. They somehow manage to keep the hope alive amid dark clouds of despair. As today is Valentine’s Day, let me say it once again: Lovers never lose hope. Everything ends bot love never does.

Given the fact that I very well know that investors too are almost in love with the market, they place their hopes and faith in it, I am not really surprised by recent fluctuations. Likewise, those, who jump to the “The worst is over. Let’s buy!” conclusion when seeing the calmness after sharp sales, do not surprise me either.

But as the years passed, I have finally realized what my parents meant. I learnt that I had to be cautious and more careful when analysing certain things. So, I decided that the best solution would be to wait until things calm down and the balance is established again.

The economists associated with International Institutions, who likewise interpret the temporary upturn after a series of harsh sales as “Time to buy!” take the same emotional approach. Especially those who provide their clients with analyses on the economic situation have been using the most exciting words, right or wrong, over the last 10 years.

“Experts do not get embarrassed…”

I am asking this one simple question: Can experts working for highly respected global institutions really make spot on comments? Do any of them lose reputation because of predictions that were proven to be terribly wrong?

Here’s the answer: No. However, they are very successful at making excuses when they are proven wrong: “There were different circumstances when I said those things”. Therefore, I strongly suggest you to turn a little bit more cautious when listening to those who call themselves “experts”. You are the owner of your money, not them. When you lose, you’re the ones who pay the price, not them.

Markets have not exactly recovered yet. So, remember that “one swallow does not make a summer” and keep patiently watching the markets.

Happy Valentine’s Day to all!

Prof. Dr. Emre Alkin