The trading week is off to a bumpy start. Let’s take a look at this week’s notable details:
- USD/TRY is on the rise again following a decline triggered by the early election statements
- Speculations on the upcoming CBRT interest rate decision are reaching peak levels
- Political circles look like they are heating up by the official announcement of parties list running in the elections as a result of CHP-İYİ PARTİ alliance
- Today, opposition leaders are expected to reveal their candidate(s) for presidency, which will likely lead to axis or paradigm shifts in Turkish political scene.
Now, let’s take a deeper look at these details, one by one: As I have said in an interview I have given to Posta Newspaper this weekend, “In Turkey, the likelihood of exchange rates may go up is always greater than a possible fall”, which means that it’s quite natural for exchange rate to rise, yet it would be highly speculative if they tend to fall all of a sudden. Turkish lira rarely gains in value, when the things are done right. This appreciation, however, is not a permanent one.
As for the interest rate decision: I surely do not expect CBRT to prove itself strong with a surprising statement like, “I’m an independent institution”. CBRT would not take the risk even if it is said, “We may be mad at you from time to time. That’s only normal. You just ignore us and keep doing what you always do”.
“We’ll know what to say once the candidates are revealed…”
The last addition to the change that occurred in election terms (following an unexpected move by the Opposition) will be the announcement of candidate list. Thing may change drastically if CHP-İYİ Parti’s put a right-wing inclined candidate up against AK Parti- MHP’s candidate. Things would change accordingly too even if they place a left-wing candidate into competition.
Left-wing candidates who are officially acclaimed by the public in terms of “performance/activities” are the ones that had successfully served as mayor before. Therefore, left-wing parties will be able to present only a limited number of candidates. If they place a left-wing candidate, on the other hand, it will only be for winning votes from Ak Parti-MHP voters. By doing so, I hope they won’t offend or hurt the left-wing or social democrat voters. It’s not easy to present a candidate that speaks to everyone with different political views.
From this point of view, it can be seen that the AK Parti-MHP maintains a more powerful and integral stance for now.
I am waiting for the candidate(s) is/are revealed so I can make deeper analysis of the upcoming elections.