Post-Earthquake Projections.

By popular demand, let me repost an article that I had shared with you last week.


First of all, let’s take a quick look at the probabilities in this scenario:


– CBRT may cut rates

– Elections may be postponed to a later date

– Different areas may be rattled by more earthquakes

– Credit and loan campaigns and practices that stimulate effective demand may lead to higher inflation


Now, let’s try to describe the situation that will occur if some of these probabilities come true, without, of course, being too pessimistic.


This year, while inflation rate will probably be at least 50%, I expect Turkey’s economy to grow by around 2% or 2.5%. Unemployment rate may exceed 12.5%, finishing the year at 11.5%. As for the current account deficit to GDP ratio, it may climb above 5%. The debt-to-GDP ratio, on the other hand, is likely to hit up to 45%.


In a best-case scenario, if Turkey can manage to keep the parameters at these levels, not allowing them to soar any higher in 2023, we could say that, in 2024, inflation rate will be around 35%, GDP growth will reach 4%, unemployment rate will drop to 10.5%, the current account deficit to GDP ratio will remain below 4%, and the debt-to-GDP ratio will return to the last year’s level of 38%.


As I have mentioned before, I do not feel like writing pages long articles these days. I’m just sharing some figures or projections that will help you have an idea about our economic future, hence make your decisions accordingly. Considering that our country was shaken by two powerful earthquakes again just yesterday, I don’t think anyone would be eager to read a long article anyway.