Sometimes I look back and think whether my forecasts have matched what actually happened. So, early this morning I decided to go check up on the report I drew up when USD/TRY first saw a big jump towards the end of July 2018.
In this report, I wrote, “Government solutions to economic problems no longer work. We need successful diplomacy” while emphasizing Turkey’s need for long-running lobbying activities and the fact that Turkish government needs to show that Turkey has never been hostile towards the US, EU or Israel and its only purpose were to eliminate the anti-Turkey tendencies nested within these countries. To prove that we have never held a hostile attitude, we need good diplomacy with strong perspective. Besides, it’s the duty and main responsibility of a parliament to object to Government’s wrong actions or policies. And such problems can be sorted out through proper democratic actions.
“Don’t be headstrong but hold your head high.”
I clearly said that Turkey must carry out very delicate diplomacy especially now when we are going through a process where Public and Private sectors’ total debt stock exceeds our GDP and dependence on foreign oil and natural gas keeps gradually increasing. We should avoid, at all costs, any type of self-destructive emotions including hate, grudge, anger or rage.
My prediction turned out to be mostly true. By the time I indicated that Turkey is about to enter a new era where political, diplomatic or even social actions will become more effective on macroeconomic parameters, the pastor hadn’t gone to the US and Turkey-Germany ties were not mended yet.
Some people still express their disapproval, highlighting that the pastor incident has been more effective on the economy rather than a CBRT intervention. But that’s where they are wrong. Turkey had fallen into a severe financial bottleneck due fragilities of its Economic Model combined with diplomatic tensions, which had to come to an end before taking any economic measures. We are almost there now, moving through relatively still waters.
Now, we urgently need an economic stability plan. But, as far as I know, this plan will not be due until the local elections. So, it looks like the Government is more likely to release an “Extremely Urgent Stability Plan