Revisiting the Export Vision… (Second and Final Part)

An analysis by some organisation where Turkey ranks fifth based on its purchasing power has been quite popular throughout the weekend. There also studies estimating that Turkey will take the 14thplace in competition based on purchasing power parity (PPP). But we better set our gaze on the future, avoiding such debates.

Defining Turkey based on its total GDP and its world GDP ranking in the future, even in 2071 would rather be an easy approach. The magnitude of your GDP doesn’t even really matter unless you are a leading country in a lot of areas, including arts, sports, music, science, and technology. For instance, the fact that Nigeria will rank among the world’s top 20 large economies in 2030 is important, however, it is also important that this very fact doesn’t help Nigeria stand out as a globally interactive nation. Quite the contrary, Nigeria is a country that is always in deep water.

As I have mentioned in Friday’s report, recognizing GDP as a measure of growth doesn’t help us very much in shaping satisfactory future projections either. It is not possible to achieve and sustain growth without establishing an energy security framework. According to International Energy Agency data, the demand for oil, coal and natural gas demand will continue to be so high towards 2030, contrary to expectations. Stating that the World will face a 45% rise in World Energy demand, starting today until 2030, International Energy Agency underlines that coal will meet 3% of the demand.

Domestic coal must be enriched using various chemical processes in order to generate coal power in Turkey. Otherwise, imported coal may become the only solution. Dependent on foreign Oil and Natural Gas, it can be seen that Turkey will still run some “energy security” risks even though it manages to diversify its renewable energy sources until 2071. And quite probably, Turkey will shape its foreign policy based on its energy needs.

According to “Strategic Roadmap to Achieve 500 Billion Dollar Export in 2023” by Turkish Exporters’ Assembly, the following industries will rank among the top 100 in Turkey on the 100th anniversary of the Republic of Turkey: Machinery, Automotive, Iron and Steel, Textile and Apparel, Chemistry, Electronics, Agriculture, Non-Ferrous Metals, Textile Raw Materials and Furniture. Followed by innovation and technology products, jewellery, ship and yacht, cement and soil products, leather and leather products, carpet and fishery, the mining industry takes the 11th place.

So, based on these projections, it is obvious that Turkey will have to work very hard to increase its export value per kilogram above 4 dollar until 2023. There’s also the possibility that recent steps to improve National Defense Industry will boost Turkish space and aeronautics sector, yielding high value added through a combination of foreign and domestic technologies.

“Turkey can only rise with deep people involvement…”

If we are to make projection for more distant future, 2071 for instance, we should bear in mind that every singly advice or suggestion we will deliver from now on will be aimed for those who will born in 2020s and 2030s, because, those who were born at the beginning of the third millennium will have reached retirement age by the above-mentioned years.

In 2071, some or most parts of human body will probably have been powered or “enhanced” by artificial intelligence. Today, there are brain pacemakers implanted into frontal lobes of Alzheimer’s patients to stimulate brain cells and switch back on memories. New studies show that babies with cancer or hereditary diseases in the womb will be treated before they are even born. So, most of the minor, daily problems that we are facing today will not exist by 2071.

If we do accept that the future will belong to people characterized by different consumption and investment reflexes than today’s populations, then we should also accept the fact that Turkey’s current growth model must change. We are talking about cyber life-dependent individuals who will shop online, book their vacations online, use online banking, digital or crypto-currency, earn a degree online.

As Turkey is about to hit by this fast-approaching fact, those who made big money using today’s conventional circumstances should start accepting the bitter fact that they will not exist in the future and take the necessary measures as soon as possible so as to painlessly adapt to the upcoming changes. Obviously, neither construction nor retail business owners will be among Turkey’s wealthiest people in the future. In short, Turkey must revolutionize its “philosophy of wealth” as we approach 2071. Being aware of the fast-approaching changes, TIM has recently started to take some revolutionary actions.

Back in 2016, it was predicted that a Mars mission to orbit the planet by the mid-2030s. So, it is absolutely essential that Turkey must allocate a large budget for space and aeronautics too. The real “Space Race” will start with extra-terrestrial settlements. Obviously, people who will take part in such space missions will not be chosen only among from the Air Force Staff and Personnel. Just like scientists, security, health, hygiene, engineering, transportation experts and professionals should be trained and equipped with the necessary skills to participate in planetary missions.

We can do all of this together, in collaboration with our friends. It is perfectly possible to be a part of the universe without losing national identity. And I’m not only one who believes in that.

Here’s a passage for you from “2050” by David Passig:
“I become even more fascinated by well-known as well as hidden aspects of Turkish history as I continued to learn about the lives of the Turks. Accordingly, it was only natural for me to explore the future of Turkish culture. As I went deeper, I realized that the fate of many Middle Eastern countries depends critically upon Turkey’s own fate and its willingness to show mercy. As I kept examining the trends surrounding Turkey as well as the ones that are born and shaped in the country, I came to the conclusion that Turkish history in the 21st century will play a major role in shaping its culture as well…”