Both the United States and Iran came into conflict while they were engaged in military operations outside their own lands. But, will it continue for long?
Let’s re-observe the situation before answering this question: The regime in Iran seems quite complicated when seen from outside. There is a religious leader, a political leader and there are also the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This regime that we could probably call “slightly better than North Korea” has ballistic missiles as we’ve all seen from yesterday’s attack where US troops targeted with these missiles. The missile has a flawless s target accuracy and can hit anywhere in the region, which means Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Turkey are within the range of missiles.
Remember, Iran is sparing no effort to acquire nuclear weapons. “So what? India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons too.” you might say. The reason why you find Iran’s efforts to own nuclear weapons normal is the strong nature of Iranian diplomacy. As a matter of fact, Iran has caused and is still causing great losses in the region with its unconventional warfare forces, and its proxy wars. And for the first time, Iran attacked a western country’s forces last night. But this attack doesn’t seem right to me and makes me ask a lot of questions.
“Trump finally speaks…”
First of all, we can guess that the United States definitely spotted the exact moment when the ballistic missiles were fired from a location inside Iran, which means they had a lot of time for taking the necessary precautions. They probably knew the exact schedule of this attack, the targets and the firing time. That is to say, as the Americans weren’t caught off guard, this attack should not exactly be considered “retaliation”. And Iran had stated that there will be no further attacks. In other words, Iranians would say, “Now, we are even” if no other attack came from the US.
The social media accounts that share the price of US Dollar in Iranian black market have been giving the “everything’s calm here” message. As markets are able to feel anything before anyone else does, I think tensions between Iran and the US will not escalate any further unless wither part does something unexpectedly stupid. With these thoughts in mind, everyone waited for Trump to speak and he has finally spoken last night.
As he spoke, we understood that this conflict is over. He also extended an olive branch to Iran. I’ve been pointing out since the beginning of this week that the top Iranian military commander was eliminated not just by the US administration but also because he was causing leadership competition in Iran. As a tradition, he suffered the same fate that his predecessors had been suffering for thousands of years in that region.
This story seems to have been concluded “for now”. The fact that Trump blamed Obama for Iranian missile attack didn’t go unnoticed either. As I said last morning on television, “the conflict between Iran and the US will not ignite a third world war”