Trump’s latest move… What does it mean?

As CBRT decision turned out to be exactly as expected I figure I can provide you with an analysis of the decision tomorrow; because, U.S. decision to terminate GSP (Generalized System of Preferences) designation of Turkey is now a higher priority.

Although U.S. decision to end key trade preferences for Turkey, which was released on Tuesday, didn’t bring too much of an impact on markets, it yet caused raised eyebrows.

According to this trade program, Turkey is given the right to an export volume around 1.5-2 billion USD per year however, this is not the final figure that is attained. Even though it may seem to bear slight importance in terms of Turkey’s total exports, this decision of the U.S. is likely to affect negatively the companies that sell goods to the United States or that own sale offices/stores in the United States. In fact, with this decision, Trump showed that he will show no hesitation in applying the provisions of the Act governing “U.S. sanctions law imposed on countries that are in military cooperation with Russia”, enacted in 2017.

This move of Trump, however, may lead to trade ties mending between Turkey and the EU, as well as result in a Turkey-Russia diplomatic mending. When I consulted Prof. Dr. Çağrı Erhan about this issue yesterday, he said, “EU has been excluding Turkey out of trade deals due to the U.S. sanctions that are currently in force. Now, Turkey might get its chance”. Prof. Erhan has also added that, from Germany to India, Trump is messing with a large number of governments.

Although it’s a bit symbolic, this latest decision of the U.S., which has nothing to do with the true meaning of ‘strategic partnership’, might lead to t a new period of growing problems between Turkey and the United States, just like the long Arms Embargo period following 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation.

“What is Trump after?”

The following reasons might be lying behind the U.S. GSP decision:

  • Trump’s intention to gain sympathy from the U.S. citizens and anti-Turkish lobby in the U.S. Congress, and thereby receive support for the 2020 Donald Trump presidential campaign.
  • U.S. Government’s insistence for pulling Turkey into the U.S. corner pursuant to a plan which has been designed and launched even before Obama’s office.

As a matter of fact, each of the above-mentioned factors might be working as we speak. Concerning the dispute between Trump and U.S. Government Bodies, the parties may be using Turkey as an instrument in their battle against each other. None of these, however, changes this very fact: There’s apparent discord between Turkey and the United States.

The recent meeting between President Erdoğan and top U.S. executives has been a herald of a new path between two countries towards a new and improved civil-military relations. But US’s latest move clearly shows that the U.S. government has no intention whatsoever to improve relations with Turkey, with potential to turn every tiny detail into a huge problem.

By the way, in 2018, the United States ran the highest trade deficit in 10 years. It’s not difficult to notice that Trump is propagandizing vociferously against fake enemies so as to prevent the potential risk that the recovering US economy may bring upon 2020 presidential election.