Uncertainties Are Increasing…

Dear friends, today, I would like to talk about both parity and other agenda items.

A brand-new process began when the Euro/Dollar parity was equalized. As everyone was waiting for the 27th of July for the Fed’s possible 75 bps rate hike, the CBRT’s monetary policy committee meeting will be held on Thursday this week.

The most frequently asked question during the holiday was “Do you expect an interest rate move from the CBRT?”. I tried to explain that the Central Bank does not have such an option under the prevailing circumstances, but it is not possible for it to cut the rates either. I also added that I expect inflation rate to reach 70% by the end of this year. The fact of the matter is that it is getting harder and harder to comment on foreign exchange and market rates.

The endeavours initiated to reducing tensions between Turkey and the United States do not go unnoticed. Unfortunately, Turkey was removed from the F-35 programme. But currently the U.S. is moving closer to selling F-16s to Turkey. I am talking about a warplane that made its first flight in 1974, was further developed in the 1980s, heavily used by the Turkish Air Force in the 1990s, and produced by the companies known as TAI and TUSAS at that time, which would merge later as TUSAS Engine Industries Inc.

The reason I know all of this is because I did my military service as an officer for the F-16 Project. Of course, there are similarities between the F-35 and the F-16. Both aircraft are classified as single-engine fighter jets. However, there is a difference between adding an older aircraft to the fleet and owning next-gen technology. Especially when our neighbours will have the F-35s.

“Domestic and Foreign Policy…”

As Turkey is trying to improve relations with Gulf countries, we know there are some Arab countries that are allies with the U.S. and are also acting in coordination with Israel. I guess I could say that it was agreed to prevent Turkey from becoming even more isolated towards the elections, developing radical rhetoric hence ensure that political leaders do not win votes over this situation. Therefore, the government is currently using a shuttle diplomacy that soothes the tensions between Turkey and the countries in the region. However, despite all these efforts, the highly anticipated funds never come, and I don’t think they will come before the elections.

Domestic politics, on the other hand, might soon take a bumpy turn. According to some experts, November elections will yield dominant results, the pre-indicator of which will be big changes in the cabinet. But I am not of the same opinion. I don’t think that will indicate anything since there has been cabinet reshuffles so many times before.

Today’s polls show that the People’s Alliance is in the risk zone, but this is because the opposition still has not revealed its candidate. When the name of the candidate to face President Erdoğan will be announced, people’s focus will change, and the negative aspects of the opposition’s candidate will be discussed in detail.

There are those who think that when the identity of the opposition’s candidate will be revealed, there will be a balancing in the polls and that the outcome will be determined by the decision of the groups with which both sides, opposition, and government, have implicit contact. As clearly shown by this analysis, an unknown future awaits us.