As the Operation Peace Spring continues, we keep watching the US’s approach to the offensive very carefully. It’s clear that Trump Administration pay the price for mistakes made during Obama’s presidency.
Each passing day, the White House keeps making more and more vain efforts to get out of domestic and foreign political traps in which it has fallen long time ago. Their plan, however, seems to have taken shape: Trump Administration does not make the same mistake Obama did by eliminating all ties with terrorist groups, but Trump is acting in such a manner so as to give the impression that he’s doing it unwillingly.
As far as I understand, Trump has no intention of declaring war on anyone. That is why the US forces are slowly withdrawing from the region. Although the hawks in Washington get upset about the withdrawal, Trump now looks like a hero to waiting mothers, wives, daughters. Making efforts to ensure America does not engage in constant close combat, despite the fact it has military bases, aircraft carriers and troops in key locations of the world, Trump gets praises from many American citizens.
In short, the US Administration says to Turkey, “Yes, you are right but be careful. Do not make me argue with the lobbyists here”. Making voters happy is the reason why the US is now imposing sanctions that had been decided on but never been released before or reimposing all penalties that had been previously lifted.
In the meantime, August industrial production index was released yesterday, according to which, Turkish economy hasn’t exhibited strong signs of improvement yet. As you may remember, on August 16th, I had shared the comments below on social media.
“Signs of slight improvement”
I had received some criticism about my comments but it now appears like Turkish economy could only improve slightly as shown by expectations surveys. In other words, production indexes and expectations surveys display similar trends.
Recently released Industrial Production Index is from August 2019, which means these statistics are more relevant to the 3rd quarter GDP growth. Based on these trends, I can easily say that we must do better than that if we want to achieve 0% GDP growth by the end of 2019.
We will have to wait for a couple more months to see whether Ankara’s efforts to enliven the economy will yield any positive results since the statistics are released in a delayed manner. That’s why we will have to make a proper analysis of expectations surveys, retail statistics and capacity utilization rates. I try to go out and talk to vendors and customers in markets as often as I can and I suggest you to do the same. Otherwise, we may fail in conducting an accurate analysis of the provided data.