Waiting for CBRT decision with undivided attention…

CBRT’s rate decision scheduled to be released on Thursday will mark the week. As we are all blowing off some steam after last week, we see that markets follow a rather calm and positive trend this time.

Obviously, ‘unintentional’ shot down-according to Iran government statements-of Ukrainian jet will keep being discussed at international scale. If Iran decides to ask for cooperation from other countries to investigate the incident, maybe a bad thing can lead to a good thing, resulting in Iran establishing closer contact with the world.

Due to this Ukrainian passenger jet crash last week, Gold Price hit its highest level in the last 5 years and then fell back again to its usual position. Almost testing USD 1580, it went down to USD 1550. We’ll see whether gold will continue to rise or not.

In Turkey, gold price per gram fell from TRY 301 to TRY 29, but closed the day with USD 294. Recent decline in USD/TRY exchange rate was also a huge factor in this fall. If FX rates will keep declining, I then should suggest those who bought gold for TRY 300 last week to better get ready to face a challenging period.

“Oil Prices seem calm for now while Stock Market keeps rising…”

Having hit almost USD 70 per barrel last week, oil price has then suddenly fallen below USD 65 after Trump’s statements. Let’s remember that Brent Crude price wasn’t able to exceed USD 70 per barrel after two unsuccessful attempts over the last year. Brent Crude price has last reached USD 78 per barrel in October 2018, which obviously brought a rather positive impact on Turkey’s current account balance.

BIST on the other hand continues from where it left off. Its previous ascent has stopped at a level above 120.000. As yesterday’s closing was above 120.000 points, experts indicate that this upward trend may reach up to 140.000. Clearly, fixed capital investments are of huge importance for Turkey but we should also not forget that BIST is a secondary market. The volume of a security traded in secondary market is also determines its demand in primary market. Further rise in Turkish stocks’ prices would consequently attract foreign capital.
So, markets would have followed their normal track if it weren’t for US vs Iran tensions. Maybe this was an opportunity for a healthy realization. Now, there’s a possibility that markets will continue to rise at a stronger pace. As I’m waiting for the CBRT decision, I also try to keep an eye on Haftar’s march towards Tripoli. You should most definitely keep track of the latest news on Libya issues.

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