1-What will happen in BIST?
BIST lists companies as old as the Republic of Turkey, as well as those that have left their mark on the last five decades. These companies have managed to survive serious financial and political crises. Despite the difficulties, they kept growing and exporting, and most importantly, they generate not only monetary profit but they also contribute to social welfare and improvement. If you’re thinking about investing, it might be wise to invest in these companies that have proven themselves over the years. BIST is run on social democratic principles, giving everyone the opportunity to purchase the shares of these valuable companies.
2-What About Interest Rates?
Interest rates will inevitably rise, but not as much as inflation. No matter who comes to power, if they can manage the market effectively and maintain a sustainable normalization, interest rates will catch up with inflation at some point. I hope they will calm down somewhere around 30-40% and then start to decline gradually. If deposit interest rates hit high levels such as 40%, you may want to grab that opportunity.
3- What About Exchange Rates?
Again, no matter who comes to power, exchange rates will be higher than today’s levels. In fact, they might even go past a limit and begin a downward trend. However, this decline will stop at a point that is above the dollar’s current level. If we can once again revive the successful process we experienced from 2002 to 2013, it might be likely that Turkish lira could enter a long-lasting period of stability and appreciation. But for this, we primarily need a strong justice reform and then an inflow of foreign capital.
4-What About Inflation?
Unfortunately, it seems quite unlikely that prices will decrease, but if we can at least stop their rapid increase, we can save households from being crushed by the high cost of living. It may be possible for Turkey to achieve a single-digit inflation by 2025, but international markets should also help us with this goal. If inflation rate remains at 50% this year and drops to 30% next year, we can manage to bring the price increases under control and eventually maintain a stable balance.
5-What Happens If the New Government Does Not Change the Economic Model?
In such case, the exchange rates would unavoidably hit undesirably high levels, then fall again, but in the meantime, many businesses would disappear, and the country might go into hyperinflation. Of course, no matter how high interest rates would rise under such terrible circumstances, they would remain unable to help fix the economy. And obviously, as a lot of individuals and organisations would want to take their money out of the system, we could also see several bans and restrictions being imposed on banking and financial market. Since all this economic turmoil would lead to supply problems, especially the supply of food and other essential needs of the population, the inevitable outcome might unfortunately be a social crisis. In short, it would be best to replace this model with a better one as soon as possible.
I hope that elections will bring about stability to our country,