You don’t have to be a genius to guess that the markets will rapidly decline until the elections. As the exchange rates continue to rise every day, everyone has the same concern…What will happen after the elections?
Recently, I have appeared live on TGRT, answering questions about the inflation rates. Although I always say that people should ask “what should be done, not what will happen”, they want to hear the answer to the question “what is the worst thing that could happen” rather than hearing a solution.
Assuming that the monetary policy remains unchanged, it would be quite likely that the TRY to USD exchange rate would jump to record high levels and then fall drastically. Of course, this drop will take some time, as those holding foreign currency would hesitate to sell it at record levels.
In such situations, holding foreign currency provides partial relief since it would not be possible to compensate for the increase in the cost of living and in the exchange rates, considering the possibility of a sharp surge in inflation. As a consequence, the growth rate would also be limited.
Since local elections will be held one year after this one, no matter which government comes to power, it will not be able to switch to free market economy instantly. Ensuring a gradual fall in interest and exchange rates would be the most appropriate action to take. However, if the new government continues to suppress the exchange rates and interest rates, the markets will not be able to stand this pressure until the local elections.
With today’s simple yet profound article, I mean to stress that those who will be elected to run the economy should avoid making the same mistakes, such as recklessly bending the market rules, which would only draw us closer to an irreparable catastrophe.
Instead of taking great risks and trying to eradicate economic problems with some lucky tactics, it would be best to be patient and adopt a less risky and effective strategy. By doing the opposite, we only create more complicated problems.