I have been reading all that is written and said about how the issue with Putin will develop and what it will develop into.
It looks like that the decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) charging Putin with a war crime has entirely changed the Kremlin’s agenda. According to many experts, if the accusations had come from the UK and the US, Putin would have easily use propaganda to twist the facts around and deny his actions. But it is the ICC that issued the arrest warrant for the Russian leader.
What is even more interesting is that before all this happened, Ukraine had filed a suit against Russia at the court in question, seeking the trial of Zelensky.
The insight information shows that there is conflict among senior state officials at the Kremlin concerning this issue. While many remain silent, few chose to condemn the decision by the ICC. It is reported that the oligarchs as well have not yet issued a statement and seem to disagree among themselves regarding the charges and allegations laid against their country’s leader. They may be keeping quiet because there is no other option for them at the moment, but they should know that Russia ruled by a president charged with war crimes will first be regarded as a “failed state” and then a “rogue state” by the international community.
Sometimes, I hear some people in Turkey say that Putin was right, that NATO behaved in an unacceptable way, forcing him to attack Ukraine. However, there is one thing these people forget: It was the Russian administration who had a hand in the death of Turkish soldiers in Syria. It was again the Russian administration that prevented the transportation of our dead and wounded soldiers back to Turkey. Russia was once popular and loved for its art, sports and culture, unfortunately none of these are left in under Putin’s rule. Lack of manners and unscrupulous behaviour now describe Russia. Frankly, I believe that if the Putin administration does not resign immediately, it will cause even more trouble to the country.
No sane person in the world would want to be associated with a war criminal. Therefore, it is not difficult to guess that the politicians in Russia will alienate Putin in the near future. He will eventually have to leave. In this respect, it can be thought that China has been strengthening its contact not with Putin, but with a Russia after Putin.
Some experts liken this situation to the elimination of Khrushchev from politics, just like it happened at the end of the Cuban crisis. By isolating the leader who made major mistakes and not following his instructions, he was eventually demoted, so to speak. However, in Putin’s Russia, there is no political mechanism to do accomplish this.
A considerable number of political analysts say that Putin runs the country by owning the wealthy, the media, the mafia, the intelligence services and the security forces. As you can see, they do not consider the Parliament or the Opposition in this equation because these elements are disabled in today’s Russia. We could presume that the media and the mafia will be the last ones to leave Putin among those other elements I mentioned above. Because those other elements have international contacts and even the country’s intelligence agency and security forces can be expected to turn against Putin.
While I am eagerly awaiting to see how things will transpire in Russia, I would like to stress that all my predictions are likely to happen in the summer without the Russians launching an all-out attack on Ukraine. Otherwise, things will get messy. And the countdown has already begun.