Turkey is about to enter a quite exciting process. We expect that a decision to be made at the end of February, announcing the date of the election as April.
As you may remember, I said in one of my reports last week that “the unrest in the BIST may be about the possibility of an election that might take place before its supposed date”. If what is told to me so far by the exports is true, a feverish process will begin soon to prepare the parliamentary election lists. Therefore, we can expect both the government and the opposition to take a harsher political tone. So, what could be the reasons for a snap election?
– It may take a longer time to see the useful effects of the Credit Guarantee Fund and other incentives, so May looks like a premature date for an election as far as government is concerned.
– Housing loans, salary and wage hikes and elimination of a retirement age requirement for millions may not create the expected effect for the government. Another possible reason for the rush.
– Perhaps, the government has finally understood that the measures currently helping to control exchange rates and other market mechanisms are not sustainable.
– – The court has not made a final decision about the accusations surrounding the Mayor of Istanbul. So, the government may want to take this opportunity to hold a snap election in the hope that it will win most of the votes.
– Possibly unstable nature of Turkey’s already knife-edge relations with the US, EU, Russia and other governments.
– All of the above.
“Tensions Will Gradually Increase.”
The President had proposed in October a referendum on a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to wear a headscarf in civil institutions and he recently said a new military operation in northern Syria could begin at any moment, putting further fuel in Turkey’s electoral atmosphere, which is already expected to be a stressful one.
