Approaching Test of Sincerity and Trust
It is not possible for anyone to know how much of the news posted on social media is true and how much them is fake, fabricated lies to call into question someone’s reputation.However, despite the unconditional support of banks and media, one cannot help but realise that Turkey’s new economic team is not doing so well.
It’s either the newly appointed team could not get used to how things are traditionally handled by the government, or it is the government itself that could not get used to the new appointees.
According to private sector representatives, the Central Bank does not genuinely support the entire real sector and the meetings with real sector businesses are held simply for the purpose of gaining sympathy.
As Professor Eğilmez often mentions in his articles, we see that the government continues to produce enormous deficits. Just last month, more vehicles have been purchased for government use despite Minister Şimşek’s call for “being more careful with money”. Years ago, when Naci Ağbal was appointed Central Bank Governor, I told him that “mitigating the negative impacts of political decisions on the markets” does not fall under his responsibility. I don’t know; perhaps it was unnecessary of me to tell him how to do his job as he was clearly and perfectly knowing how to do it. However, Mr. Ağbal did his job as he was supposed to and was sadly dismissed despite his proper management of the economy under the then circumstances.
I cannot offer a similar piece of advice to the current Central Bank administration because they are not in a position to listen. I understand that from their attitude at meetings and other details that I have been informed about. Working under pressure is undoubtedly difficult, but one should avoid adding unnecessary stress to the existing work stress.
Meanwhile, international financial institutions are updating their US Dollar to Turkish Lira rate forecasts. Soon, inflation expectations will be revised as well. And it would be wise for the government to revise its MTP too before the elections. Personally, I do not expect an inflation rate lower than 50%, let alone 36%, that is, of course, if TurkStat decides to protect the integrity of the data this time. If the Central Bank cuts rates early despite the persistent inflation, all the work done so far will be in vain.
