Early Election is on the way… But when…?

The much anticipated news has finally come.

My conversations with representatives of the business world as well as experienced politicians were affirmative in terms of a large consensus on early elections. I must confess that I made my contribution by asking, “Do you know that 15 July falls on a Sunday?”, just to remind the plot in 2016.

Yesterday, the consensus was suddenly built when no one opposed to the “let’s hold elections on Sunday, August 26th” proposition. My guess is that the exact date will probably be released after Erdoğan-Bahçeli meeting today. By the way, this date refers to the first victory of Turkish Army in Anatolia (11th century).

I’d like to remind you, however, that elections have been held in Turkey within 45 days interval. So, 15 July still appears on the early election date menu. Yes, it’s hard but not possible. The general assembly of the ruling party must convene until September as they are not expected to participate in elections without holding a general assembly. Other parties have already completed their meeting processes.

From this point of view, this idea of holding early elections on August 26 may be altered at today’s meeting. According to some political experts, it would be more rational to hold elections in October or November. All the things we wonder will be revealed after today’s meeting.

The Early Election discussions have brought limited impact on markets. USD/TRY and Benchmark Rate maintained a relatively calm trend. BIST was negatively affected but it is expected to gather strength soon. I’ll provide you with a deeper analysis after taking a closer look on today’s upcoming events.