We can see there are sharp fluctuations in USD/TRY following the elections. While the duo keeps going up and down between the levels of 4.55 and 4.70, it can sometimes push the lower and upper bands.
Let me put it clearly: USD/TRY’s probability of rising is still higher than its probability of falling. Decisions to be issued by AK Party’s board meeting on Friday will be quite determinative both for interest rates and exchange rate markets.
Dollar keeps noticeably appreciating on a global scale. On the other hand, Euro has been depreciating against Dollar since April. Dollar will obviously continue to gain in value as there will be more good news on the US economy along with Trump’s behaviour fuelling trade wars and the Fed’s interest rate decisions.
Yesterday, I was talking with political scientists. One of them told me that he’s changed his mind about Trump. I think he might be re-elected. You know what? I am thinking the exact same thing. It is a rare phenomenon that an American President, with an approval rating of 35%, can get so much profit of a system which was broken by him in the first place.
“Mother of all fears….”
However, I need to remind you that before the 2008 financial crisis, the ratio of S&P 500 (which consists of most of the largest companies in the United States) over GDP had returned greater than 100%. Now, the US is going through almost the same thing. Everyone expects sharp readjustments, in which case, the world, notable the developing countries, will be affected by large amounts of capital flight. Then the world economy will have to face one of its deepest fears.
Therefore, I strongly suggest you all to keep up to date with financial news and markets at all times.
