Although it might seem like uncertainty prevails again following Russia’s decision to withdraw from Ukrainian export deal, I will try to look at this issue from a different perspective.
As a matter of fact, no one has really profited from this climate of conflict initiated by Putin by invading Ukraine, expect for the fact that the current regime in Russia is approaching to its end. It is quite likely that we might witness an uprising soon in Russia as well, after Iran. There is also the possibility of reheating the issue of “war crimes” and presenting it to the global public as a last resort. However, there are many details to keep track of.
The US midterm elections, which will conclude this month, will quite probably result in a heavy defeat for the Democrats. Due to this inevitable result and his health problems, Biden is expected to leave the office to Vice President Kamala Harris for the remaining term. If this happens, all political and diplomatic balances will shift to a new direction. In this process, the elements of the US Government are looking for grounds to make “Putin’s honourable withdrawal” happen, which will benefit all parties. However, it is known that some European countries, especially Germany, do not want to be a part of this plan.
It is likely that Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal shortly before its expiration, may make Europe think about an “honourable withdrawal from Ukraine” once again.
“Putin Is The Biggest Risk…”
No one can guarantee that Putin won’t occupy all of Ukraine when he feels further threatened. This scenario was out of question months ago, but now it seems quite possible. While the fact that wheat prices have risen 6% after Russia withdraws from grain deal increases inflation concerns, it may also convince the parties to try a more moderate way to end the war in Ukraine.
I think Putin’s recent statement “There is no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine” was aimed at easing the global concerns. However, the fact that some governments, led by Germany, said, or implied that they would not allow enough room for Putin’s withdrawal plan has worsened the situation. It seems like the controlled tensions process will continue until the withdrawal plan is fully formed.