The week ends with satisfying growth data. According to statistics released yesterday, Turkish economy has grown by 7.4% in 2017, which was my expectation for the last year as you may remember from my reports.
There were some exaggerated estimates of growth as well like between 7.9% and 8.3%. However, as I have pointed out on several occasions, it would be impossible for us to see another high growth rate in the fourth quarter, especially after the high rate of third quarter. Considering the fact that growth rates are calculated based on the same quarter of the previous year, it may be possible for us to make an accurate estimate, though not a spot-on prediction, by comparing constant prices with GDP.
It may be fun to study the difference between by comparing the value-added production in the quarter of one year to the value-added production in the same quarter of the next year. As a result of it you may create realistic projections. Besides, you won’t need to make too much effort to access the data as it can be found on TurkStat’s website.
“There must be something behind it…”
It was quite interesting to see exchange rates dropped, interest rates declined and BIST slightly went up yesterday afternoon, which may have been caused by the fact that foreign currency panic buying was recently replaced with a calmer sale-inclined trend. However, it may be wiser to see how markets will finish the day before we make any premature decision.
You all know about one of my favourite sayings about life, “One swallow does not make a summer”. The same goes for the ‘temporary’ positive trend of late. As you may remember, I said that negative trends would not last too long, now I say the same for positive trends that arise out of nowhere.